The Race of the Falling Leaves Is Wide Open: Your Il Lombardia 2026 Cheat Sheet

The leaves are turning rust-orange around Lake Como, and for the first time in half a decade, the man who has made Il Lombardia his personal property won't be at the start line. Tadej Pogačar — five consecutive winner of cycling's final Monument — is sidelined with injury, and the effect on Saturday's 120th edition is seismic. When the patron is absent, everybody else gets to race.

With Pogačar gone, what was once an exercise in limiting losses has suddenly become a genuine shoot-out among eight or nine riders who each have a legitimate case for victory. If you like tactical cycling — team strategy, counter-attacks, nervous glances over shoulders — October 10 is your day.

The Route in Numbers

The race rolls out of Bergamo at 10:45 CET and finishes in Como, covering 239 km of Lombardy's finest brutality. The day tallies roughly 4,600 metres of elevation gain across nine categorised climbs. Key passages include Selvino (10.1 km at 5.9%), Valpiana (10.4 km at 6.1%), and the iconic Madonna del Ghisallo, which summits 60.6 km from the finish line — far enough that nobody can win there, but close enough to shred the peloton to ribbons.

The final test is the San Fermo della Battaglia, a punchy, technical climb that spits riders into a technical descent before the lakeside sprint into Como. It rewards explosive power and technical descending in equal measure — a profile that suits a very specific type of rider.

The Favourite: Evenepoel's Best Chance Yet

Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe) arrives in the rainbow-striped kit of the newly crowned European Champion, and the circumstances couldn't be more favourable. He has finished second in each of the last two editions of Lombardia, both times behind Pogačar. Remove Pogačar, and the Belgian's path to victory looks clearer than it ever has.

Evenepoel already owns two Liège-Bastogne-Liège titles, so his credentials on long, punishing climbs are beyond question. The main doubt? He has sometimes struggled when races turn into pure mountain battles over multiple consecutive ascents — exactly what the Lombard roads can deliver on a hard day.

The Challengers Queueing Up

This is where it gets interesting. Evenepoel won't have things his own way.

Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates–XRG) is the pick of several analysts heading into the weekend. The 20-year-old Mexican Champion rode an outstanding Vuelta a España and has looked increasingly comfortable in one-day races. His UAE teammate Brandon McNulty — the new road world champion — lines up for his first Monument in the rainbow jersey, and if there's an opportunity for a long-range attack, he'll take it.

Paul Seixas, the French 20-year-old sensation from Decathlon CMA CGM, has announced himself as one of cycling's most exciting talents in 2026 and is considered a genuine podium threat. Tom Pidcock (Pinarello–Q36.5) arrives hungry for his first Monument win, while Giulio Ciccone — whose European Championships result still stings after a bitter photo finish — will be motivated to make amends. Davide Piganzoli arrives on the back of a Giro dell'Emilia victory, and Matteo Jorgenson, Quinn Simmons, Ben Healy, Primož Roglič, and Enric Mas all add further depth to what promises to be a genuinely chaotic final.

Tactical Wildcards

With no single dominant team able to control the race the way UAE could when Pogačar was at his peak, multiple squads start with two viable leaders. That creates a tactical puzzle: does Red Bull–Bora try to ride for Evenepoel, or does an opportunistic Ciccone attack on the Ghisallo while Belgian heads are turned? Does UAE commit to del Toro or give McNulty a free role?

The San Fermo descent into Como will also be a decisive moment. It rewards technical skill and nerve — a factor that often separates riders who look equal on paper. In 2024, Pogačar rendered the whole final irrelevant with his famous 48 km solo attack, but without him to police the race, no one team can afford to let a rival ride away early.

What This Means for Your Riding

Il Lombardia offers a masterclass in sustained climbing over varied gradients — a skill directly transferable to any sportive or gran fondo with multiple categorised climbs. The pros will be managing power carefully over each ascent, knowing that the final climb is the one that matters most. It's a reminder that pacing strategy over multi-climb routes is about saving just enough for the last effort — not attacking on the first big wall.

For training inspiration: if you can find a loop with a mix of long steady climbs (Selvino-style) and short punchy ones (San Fermo-style), you're recreating the same physiological demands these riders face. That alternation between sustained aerobic effort and explosive anaerobic surges is the engine of Lombardia-style performance.

Watch live on Saturday, October 10 — Il Lombardia might just deliver the most unpredictable Monument result in years.