How projections work

Your projection is an estimate, not a prediction

We take the published stage route, split it into CycleLytic’s five terrain tiers, and apply your historical average speed in each tier. It does not account for fatigue, accumulated climbing, weather, drafting and pack dynamics, nutrition, mechanicals, or race tactics — so your real time would differ. Think of it as how your current fitness maps onto the terrain, not a finishing time.

Comparison to the pros is modeled

Winner times and the gap to you are reconstructed from published results and the route profile. We do not have most riders’ actual power or telemetry, so "vs the winner" is a model, not their real ride file.

Descent speed is assumed

Our terrain model is based on climbing rate and doesn’t measure descents, so we apply a single modeled descent speed for everyone rather than your own descending data.

Climb categories are auto-detected

HC and Cat 1–4 labels are estimated from the route profile, not the official ASO/UCI categories (which factor length, gradient, position and race context). Official names attach when a verified route is loaded.

Gradients are sustained averages

Max gradient and steep-percentage come from a smoothed, resampled profile, so short steep ramps read lower than their true peak.

Thin history falls back to a reference rider

If you have little or no history on a terrain tier, we substitute a reference speed for that tier, so that part of the projection is generic rather than personal.

Finish groups are illustrative

"Peloton / Gruppetto / Autobus" are derived from the modeled time gap — they’re a friendly label, not an official classification or time-cut calculation.

Routes & data

Stage routes come from third-party sources and are smoothed for display, so distances and elevation are close approximations. Routes can change; organizer updates may not appear immediately.